Problems of Forensic Sciences 2001 Vol. 46 (XLVI) 14-23
INTERPRETATION OF THE VALUE OF EVIDENCE
Colin Graeme Girdwood AITKEN
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Streszczenie
It has been argued for some time that the best way to evaluate evidence is to compare two probabilities, the probability of the evidence if the prosecution proposition is true and the probability of the evidence if the defence proposition is true. How these probabilities are used to evaluate evidence is explained. Various methods which have been used to interpret evidence are illustrated and their correctness or otherwise discussed. More education in the use of probabilities in a court of law is needed to ensure correct interpretations.
Słowa kluczowe
Bayes' theorem; Likelihood ratio; Defence fallacy; Prosecutor's fallacy.